After global markets got a small dose of the staggers late last week as the US dollar rose, it will be time for a bit more in coming days.

America is heading towards Thanksgiving and the now familiar ritual of “will the retail surge from Friday onwards save the economy (and our bonuses)?”

The upturn in the US dollar late last week took everyone by surprise, including those punting on an Aussie dollar hitting parity by Christmas: the two US cent-plus fall on Thursday and Friday in the Aussie’s value took a lot of the hot air out of that optimism.

That’s increasingly the end-of-year anxiety levels in all those US and European and other banks that have ridden the rebound since March.

Market yields on short term (three months) US government notes plunged Thursday to move into a slightly negative position, before recovering to close at zero. On Friday they edged up to 0.1%. Yields on two-year notes also fell to under 1%, finishing at 0.72%, the lowest since last December.

Behind that surprisingly sharp fall is the move by banks in the US, Europe and Japan to start building liquidity buffers for the end of year and end of quarter (and end of financial year in the US). These banks have been buying US government debt and hanging onto it to make their balance sheets look healthier and more liquid; now the action is in the very short end of the fixed-interest market, hence the absurd rates for three-month notes last week. Banks will have to hold more government securities in their balance sheets as the regulatory demand for bigger liquidity buffers grows.

On top of this there’s emerging concerns that the US economy is not as healthy as the official figures and many forecasts think. It might even slow early next year. As well the Japanese economy’s rebound is a mirage and the economy is in the grip of a deflationary spiral, which is boosting real interest rates. That grip will be reconfirmed this week with the latest inflation figures.

Last week US markets started wondering if the recovering housing sector wasn’t actually sicker than previously thought and therefore in need of a longer time on taxpayer drip.

New housing starts tanked 10.6%; tonight in the US October’s existing home sales figures are released, tomorrow night the Case Schiller home price index for September is out and on Wednesday we get new home sales figures, for October as well. They are expected to show more moderate strength, but it’s the new home buyers’ tax break that is driving activity, not real demand.

As well we also get consumer spending figures, personal income data and durable goods, plus two measures of consumer confidence, (which will be compared to the early reports of the post Thanksgiving sales rush). But the most important figure will be the second estimate of third quarter economic growth.

That’s out tomorrow night and more economists are saying that the first reading of an annual rise of 3.5% (0.9% quarter on quarter) was too high and will fall to the range of 2.6% to 2.9% (or between 0.6% and 0.7%) in tomorrow night’s report. Anything lower and the markets will have a turn.

Many corporate analysts and economists know that all the easy gains for many US companies have been made with cost cuts, jobs being slashed (lower oil and other commodity prices have helped) and falling wages and low inflation, which hasn’t reacted to widespread price increases on a range of products from confectionary to breakfast cereals, coffee, sugar and cars.

On top of that there was a flare up of concerns in currency markets that more and more countries are talking about trying to restrict or slow capital inflows: Brazil and Taiwan have made definite moves, even China is worried, and surprisingly New Zealand seemed to indicate late last week that it might take moves (only options as yet) to lower the value of the Kiwi dollar.

That talk, especially from New Zealand, and the turn in the value of the greenback, helped the Australian dollar fall sharply last week: it fell from over 94 US cents midweek to close about 91.40 US cents on Friday night, the biggest fall for a month or more.

Woodside Petroleum’s news of a 6%-10% blowout in the cost of its $11.5 billion (now well over $12 billion) Pluto LNG project has sparked concerns that the Reserve Bank’s fears on bottlenecks and inflationary cost outbreaks might not be too far from the truth, and here much sooner than we think. The economy seems to be sluggish, but costs are under pressure with the explosive stage of the LNG boom about to start.

And Australia will have to wear a two-week delay to the release of the third-quarter growth figures. Private capital investment figures, construction spending and several other important statistics (such as government spending and inventories, plus the current account data) are out in the next week at their usual time ahead of the national accounts, which would have been released Wednesday week, a day after the Reserve Bank meets to look at rates.

But the GDP numbers will not be out until December 15 because the Statistics Bureau is reworking the basis on which they are compiled. A note at the end of the June quarter accounts said the September figures would be released on December 16. That means the Reserve Bank will be flying more blind than it is sometimes is with the delay.

So will governor Glenn Stevens, who is due to speak in the evening in Sydney on December 8 to a business economists forecasting dinner. (Crystal balls at 10 paces, egos at 20). The national accounts will seem like an anti-climax coming two weeks late. But better late than never. After the national accounts, is nine days to Christmas, let the holidays begin?