And they’re off! Crikey’s short guide to the Victorian election

Ah Christ, another of these? Already? Later this month, Victorian Premier Dan Andrews and Liberal Leader Matthew Guy take their quaking clown car parties to face an exhausted public in the state election. Here’s our primer on what to watch.

Foregone conclusion?

Back in September polling was putting Andrews’ Labor government on track for another “crushing election victory” — polling conducted for The Age by research company Resolve Strategic put Labor’s primary vote at 42% Andrews v 28% for the Liberals, and Andrews led Guy as preferred premier by an even greater margin — 46% to 28%.

Labor’s projected primary vote has slipped over October to 38%t in the most recent Resolve polling, with 31% of voters indicating that they will vote Green, minor party or independent. Indeed, the Greens are hoping to follow their best federal election results with similar success at state level, calling in new federal MP Max Chandler-Mather for advice.

Further, there is a far higher proportion of voters yet to make a firm decision than in previous years. Still, very few insiders on either side of the aisle are giving the Liberals a chance.

Scandals and fleeing MPs

Perhaps its unfair to refer Andrews’ Labor government as a clown car — that’s not quite the tone it strikes. As we wrote when Andrews was thrust into the national spotlight, the government has for large parts of its time in power been competent. Not that this has been all for the good — but whether it’s the removal of level crossings or bulldozing sacred Indigenous trees, introducing no-fee TAFE or criminalising protest, it gets stuff done.

But whatever its good qualities, any government subject to an excoriating Independent Broad-based Anti-Corruption Commission (IBAC) and Victorian ombudsman report revealing nepotism, rampant branch stacking and egregious misuse of public resources over many years, mere months out from an election, surely ought to not be so nigh-on guaranteed reelection?

What possible explanation for this eight-year-old administration continuing to haemorrhage a slew of ministers and finishing up a term that also featured one of the harshest and longest COVID lockdowns in the world still looking in no danger of losing government?

Introducing the Victorian Liberal Party. Headed by Guy, the Grover Cleveland of failed opposition leaders, it has been the greatest gift Andrews and co could have asked for. How can the public focus on any Labor Party scandal for long given the sheer volume coming out of the Liberal HQ?

We don’t have time to go into all of it, but this year alone has seen the resignation of Guy’s chief of staff for soliciting money for his marketing business from a Liberal donor, the replacement of anti-abortion obsessive MLC Bernie Finn with … another obsessive, and of course the one-man scandal generation industry Tim Smith.

Amid talk that Guy might be knifed for a second time in August, an anonymous member of his shadow cabinet gave The Australian the following glowing endorsement: “The consensus is we will limp along with a damaged leader as our banner carrier unless something else comes out that makes his position untenable.”

Teal a change coming on?

November’s poll will be the first test of the staying power of the teal phenomenon, with fiscally conservative and socially progressive (particularly when it comes to climate action) independents running against the Liberals in seats where Labor doesn’t have a chance.

In Victoria, this resulted in high-profile Libs Josh Frydenberg and Tim Wilson being ousted from the blue ribbon seats of Kooyong and Goldstein respectively. It’s no surprise then that Kew and Hawthorn, the state seats that collectively cover the same area as Kooyong, both have strong teal candidates. Sandringham, which covers some of the same territory as Goldstein, also has a teal candidate in former Bayside mayor Clarke Martin, possibly the first bloke to explicitly adopt the teal designation.

Big issues

Health and education, as ever, dominate. The biggest bidding war between the parties has been on Victoria’s creaking health system — so far, the Liberals have promised spending of $4.5 billion for hospital infrastructure alone, and Labor is promising more than $6 billion. Labor has committed $1.6 billion to upgrading and building public schools, and the opposition has offered $300 million for free school lunches.

Apart from that, there’s the skyrocketing cost of living. There have been various responses — from Labor planning to set up a state-owned energy company to drive down energy prices, to the Coalition promising to cap public transport costs at $2 a day.