Liberals likely to hold Tudge’s seat of Aston, as Albanese loses a little sheen

What if something important happened in Australian politics over the summer and no one noticed?

We might have seen the first loss of sheen from Anthony Albanese’s still election-warm glow. There was a big hint of it in the first Newspoll of 2023, which recorded an otherwise healthy +24% net satisfaction rate for the prime minister. That number is not at all shabby; most political leaders would consider evil deeds to get to this level.

However, this is the lowest net-satisfaction, or net-sat as political jargon would have it, for Albanese since last May’s election — a fall from the giddy heights of +35% last July and +33% just before Christmas.

A turning point?

Even on a global scale, Albanese is riding high. The polling firm Morning Consult conducts weekly rolling surveys across 22 countries, and he has the fourth highest satisfaction rating with a net-sat of +26% (behind India’s Narendra Modi, Switzerland’s Alain Berset and Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador).

Morning Consult shows the loss of initial shine for Albanese is not just seen in Newspoll. The +26% recorded this week is down significantly from the +33% measured during a number of weeks in the second half of last year.

So far Newspoll has found no associated fall in Labor’s standing. There’s a dip of one point in the primary vote — within the margin of error — but the preferred vote is unchanged.

It’s the statistically significant drop in Albanese’s numbers (there was also a fall of three points in his preferred PM score) that should have Labor strategists interested, if not concerned.

After all, this fall from the highs of 2022 happened during a period when Australians go to the beach, party and celebrate with family and friends, watch sport and usually feel good about the world. Against what we’ve seen in recent years, there weren’t that many natural disasters to dampen the mood.

Most prime ministers return to work at the end of January with some holiday joy in their polling numbers. Of course, the historically chart-busting exception was January 2020, when Scott Morrison crashed from -3% to -22%, but this was a reverse-GOAT performance.

Underlying factors

The latest Newspoll numbers for Albanese point to a genuine loss of shine from the prime minister’s political ball. The causes are easy to find.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton hardly took a day off over Christmas and through the January break, playing political hardball whenever he saw an opportunity. Most of his energy was aimed at Albanese’s personal project to defy historical precedent and change the Australian constitution to create an Indigenous Voice to Parliament.

In terms of political tasks, it doesn’t get much harder than this. Referendums to change the constitution have a scorecard of eight out of 19 — and just one of those was proposed by the Labor Party.

Dutton has played a clever two-track political campaign: asking for various questions to be answered, and suggesting the government is not being transparent and that real-life progress won’t necessarily come from the endorsement of a Voice.

The other side of his mouth says everyone wants to see recognition.

When Dutton began his political crunch, Albanese was caught on the back foot, slow to get his arguments sensibly framed and out into the public square. Through these back-and-forth arguments, he looked far too political, something that would have jarred with those looking up from the beer and prawns on the deck.

Some of Dutton’s colleagues and a few commentators say he wasted a lot of effort banging the daily “more detail on the Voice” drum, when he should have been laser-focused on the issue Australians can’t avoid: the cost of living and energy prices, as well as interest rate rises. These are playing on the mind of Australians everywhere, whenever they go to the petrol station or the supermarket, or open their utility bills and scan their bank statements. It is pain every which way.

All this is putting political pressure on Labor’s standing, as well as that of Albanese. It would be remarkable if the relatively high vote enjoyed by the ALP — a 10-point preferred vote advantage — holds up just as his personal popularity could continue on its downward trajectory.

Dutton’s political play was more of a softening-up exercise, making Albanese look political on an issue that wasn’t the main game. It appears to have worked so far.

Costly affairs

Labor is not going to turn these polling numbers around by just talking about the Voice. The first week and a day in Parliament suggests the Liberals and Labor know this too.

Dutton and his team used almost every opportunity in question time to needle the government about the cost of living, while Labor has been searching for the rhetorical toeholds it needs to climb this modern political debate. It has a solid foundation from which to make its case — breaking the long-running deficit on the question of who better manages the nation’s finances — but these relentless price rises are going to take a toll.

Into this mix is the Victorian byelection for the eastern suburbs seat of Aston, a 2.8% Liberal seat held at the election by controversial former minister Alan Tudge. In reality, the chances of Labor winning Aston are slim, despite some fevered wishing and hoping.

The poll-watcher blog Poll Bludger, written by William Bowe, offers a reality check from the Hawke government at a similar time in its early, popular years.

Despite the stratospheric popularity of Bob Hawke during his first year as prime minister, Labor failed to make ground in any of the six byelections held in that time, suffering a particularly disappointing failure in the marginal Brisbane seat of Moreton, where the Liberals were defending a margin of 1.6%.

With this history in the mirror, it’s easy to drop the Aston byelection into the basket of very unlikely events. The Liberals will hold Aston.

Has Albanese lost his way? Let us know by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.