Is it time for Labor to return to Balmain?

About midday last Friday, a royal procession hit Balmain’s main street. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, NSW Opposition Leader Chris Minns, state member Jo Haylen, Inner West mayor Darcy Byrne and state Labor candidate Philippa Scott descended on local cafe Bertoni, drank lattes and posed for selfies with the locals.

After a suitable interval, the group trooped across the road to Balmain’s iconic pub, the Unity Hall, where they had a few beers for St Patrick’s Day. The PM was in friendly territory — not only is Balmain in his federal electorate but the Labor Party, then called the Labor Electoral League, had its first meeting at the Unity in 1891.

It was a highly staged appearance and both Scott and Albo have plastered photos and videos all over their respective social media feeds. Labor needs to win nine seats to clinch a majority, and according to Labor insiders, Balmain is one of its key targets. Although the incumbent, Greens MP Jamie Parker, has a 10% margin, he is retiring — and the ALP thinks it could be in with a chance.

Both Labor and the Greens have obviously decided that, in the words of the late US senator Tip O’Neill, “all politics is local” — both Scott and Greens candidate Kobi Shetty are councillors on the Inner West council and well known to local residents.

Balmain, Rozelle and Birchgrove are now plastered with posters of the two of them. While the parties are technically restricted to a spending cap of only $132,600 per electorate, the major parties can average the amount of money over the 93 lower house electorates and concentrate their resources in the marginal seats.

I’ve lived in the seat for 30 years and seen changing demography transform it from a safe Labor seat (apart from independent Dawn Fraser serving one term from 1988 to 1991) to a Greens stronghold. When Parker defeated Labor’s Verity Firth in 2011, he became the first NSW lower house Greens MP; in the past 12 years, he has become a popular local member and an effective politician.

One of Labor’s criticisms of Parker is that he often votes with the Liberals, but he says he’s focused on outcomes rather than ideology. The 51-year-old has forged strong alliances with other progressive members on the NSW crossbench — in particular independent MP Alex Greenwich — in order to get meaningful legislation through Parliament. The bills deal with mental health, marine parks, anti-corruption and heritage protection as well as local issues.

But now that Parker is off to forge a new career and spend more time with his young family, the Greens are about to find out how much of his margin is personal.

I trooped down to the electorate’s main pre-poll venue, Leichhardt Town Hall, on Saturday morning and spent about 90 minutes with the candidates as they canvassed for early votes. While Shetty and Scott pressed the flesh, it was Parker who got the most attention, with many people stopping to thank him for serving the community.  

Right at the end, Liberal candidate Freya Leach turned up, joining her male volunteers — students at Sydney Uni. The boys were wearing blue “Liberal” T-shirts of a suspiciously turquoise hue, like wolves in sheep’s clothing. Leach is already famous due to a 2022 incident when she forced Sydney University Law School to withdraw an exam on the grounds that it vilified her. In the exam paper, a right-wing girl called “Freya” kills a left-wing victim in a hit-and-run, has unprotected sex despite being HIV-positive and is subsequently thrown out of a window. The university denied the claim, saying it was just a coincidence.

The primary Liberal vote in Balmain has been around 20% for several elections and is unlikely to change this time, despite Leach’s youthful enthusiasm and penchant for being photographed with the inner west’s most popular residents: cavoodles.  

I talked to a shattered Verity Firth at about 5pm on polling day in 2011, when she must have known that she was about to be swept out of office. At that election, NSW Labor suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in state history, losing 28 seats. Twelve years later, is it time for Labor to come back to Balmain? All celebrations will be held at the Unity, of course.