Arrests, defections, frozen funds: India’s election will test its slide to electoral autocracy

With nearly a billion eligible voters, India’s upcoming general election is being touted as the largest exercise in the history of electoral democracy. But what has been a proud record of seven decades of free and fair elections may be ending following a clampdown on opposition parties, with leaders arrested or disqualified from running for office and political party funds frozen.

Scrutiny of the electoral process is likely to increase as the first of seven rounds of voting begins on April 19. Results for the 543-member Lok Sabha — the lower house of India’s bicameral Parliament — are due on June 4.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has set a goal of 400-plus seats and more than 50% of the total votes polled. While it may not achieve these targets, the popularity of Modi looks certain to see the NDA improve substantially on its current tally of 303 seats and 37% vote share. If, as is widely expected, Modi rides a wave of Hindu nationalism, welfarism and strong economic growth to win a third term, he will be the first Indian prime minister to do so since Jawaharlal Nehru.

Critics of the electoral process point to an uneven playing field. Recently released data shows that the BJP received roughly half of the A$3 billion donated by companies to political parties since 2018, seven times the amount received by the opposition Congress Party. The data was revealed after the Supreme Court forced the State Bank of India to disclose donors and recipients of “electoral bonds”, an arrangement the BJP introduced in 2017 that enabled companies to make political donations under a cloak of confidentiality. Analysis of the data has revealed that many corporate entities were facing government investigations, only to be left off once they purchased electoral bonds.

While the electoral bonds scandal has tarred the BJP’s corruption-free image, it is unlikely to significantly improve the fortunes of Congress, with some polls predicting the party will struggle to pick up more than 30 seats. Squabbles and factionalism have undermined the Congress-led, multi-party India National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), while its leading figure, Rahul Gandhi, has been the target of ridicule by Modi for representing an old, entitled, Western-leaning elite out of touch with the masses.

Nothing illustrates the disillusionment among the opposition’s ranks more starkly than the avalanche of defections to the BJP. Out of 417 candidates the BJP had enrolled as of April 5, more than a quarter have been defectors from other political parties, with the largest number coming from Congress.

The opposition suffered a further blow on March 21 when the Enforcement Directorate, whose mandate is investigating financial crimes, arrested Arvind Kejriwal, the chief minister of Delhi and leader of the Aam Aadmi Party, and charged him with corruption in the allocation of private liquor licences. Two of his deputies have also been arrested.

Earlier this year, Congress saw its bank accounts frozen over a tax dispute leaving it unable to pay campaign workers. Rahul Gandhi was disqualified from Parliament last year after his conviction for criminal libel in a case filed by a member of the BJP. He was reinstated pending a Supreme Court appeal. Critics of the government point out that 95% of financial crime probes since Modi was first elected in 2014 have targeted the opposition.

In March, the UN high commissioner for human rights Volker Türk called the 2024 election, with its 960 million registered voters, “unique in scale”, but voiced concern over the “increasing restrictions on the civic space — with human rights defenders, journalists and perceived critics targeted” as well as “hate speech and discrimination against minorities, especially Muslims”.

The International Institute of Democracy and Electoral Assistance, an inter-governmental organisation that measures the credibility of elections and the freedom of political parties, recently downgraded India’s score as an electoral democracy from 71% to 60%. India is now ranked 66th out of 173 countries surveyed, down from 50th five years ago.

Among the most stinging criticism of the electoral process has come from the noted Indian psephologist and political commentator Yogendra Yadav, who has until now been a staunch defender of India’s electoral process in the face of what he calls “the usual Western suspicions and Eurocentric standards”. According to Yadav, the 2024 poll is shaping up to be “the least free and fair national election” since independence.

“We do not yet know if it will eventually turn out to be a seriously compromised election or a complete farce,” Yadav said. Based on recent events including Mr Kejriwal’s arrest, India is “taking a stride toward our immediate neighbours like Pakistan or Bangladesh and distant neighbours like Russia”.

When Modi visited Australia in May 2023, he touted India as the “mother of democracy” and a “force of global good”, claims that his host Prime Minister Anthony Albanese accepted a face value. The coming weeks will see if India lives up to these standards — and if countries such as Australia can continue to ignore India’s slide towards electoral autocracy.