Waiting for Newspoll

The speculation about a change in the Liberal leadership refuses to go away no matter who denies it is possible in what terms. Yesterday it was the only question journalists seemed to want to ask Prime Minister John Howard as he wandered around pressing the flesh at a school fête in his electorate of Bennelong.

Treasurer Peter Costello was thwarted in displaying the importance of his new found promotion to “Prime Minister in Waiting” by being asked to explain what would happen if Tuesday’s Newspoll showed the Coalition doing even worse than last time.

The only guide I can offer as to where Newspoll is headed is the combined wisdom of Crikey readers. For several months now we have been running a Pick the Newspoll competition. The previous predictions have been close to spot on with the exception of the last poll where the improvement in the Labor vote was greater than expected.

The early entries this time expect Labor to maintain its primary vote at over 50% and for a marginal improvement in Labor’s share of the two party preferred vote. If the readers are right then Liberals are still facing an annihilation at the polling booths.

The recent performance of Newspoll is shown below with the Pick the Newspoll prediction for this week in bold. Use it as a form guide for your own entry which can still be made here.