Something’s rotten in the balance of payments With the rate increase decision tomorrow and the fourth-quarter GDP figures on Wednesday, here’s how the morning data flow panned out. The Balance of Payments was rotten, the current account deficit rose $2.728 billion (19%) to $17.459 billion in the December quarter, seasonally adjusted. The balance on goods and services almost doubled from $3.96 billion in the September quarter to $7.750 billion in the December quarter 2009. The ABS said this “is expected to detract 1.3 percentage points from growth in the December quarter 2009 volume measure of GDP”. That was after the rise in the September quarter lopped an estimated 1.8% from GDP growth.

Manufacturing data looking rosy: And inventories may have added a tiny bit of help to growth, growing 0.2% in the December quarter. But that was slower than the 0.8% rise in the September quarter. Company profits rose a seasonally adjusted 2.2% in the December quarter, wages and salaries rose a seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.6%. Both had been weak in the September quarter. Manufacturing had its fastest monthly growth in two years in February, according to the latest performance of manufacturing index, up 2.8 to 53.8, seasonally adjusted. And the TD Securities/Melbourne Institute inflation gauge showed price pressures running well under the RBA target range.

Everyone hates Woolies: Journalists on the Murdoch tabloids and TV producers at Today Tonight and ACA again have missed a great story in the Woolworths half-year financial figures. Released Friday, the detail of the report revealed the secret of the retailing giant. Woolies is a company that has been attacked for being nasty to competitors, for price gouging and being too tough on suppliers. The real story from the result is Woolies’ immense profitability. The heart of the company is its huge Australian supermarkets business (with the liquor and petrol attached). The key indicator for retailers is the so-called EBIT margin, that is earnings before interest and tax. In Woolies’ case, it hit a record 6.45c in every dollar of sales in the half, up from 6.04c a year ago. That’s not including petrol. Earnings across the group rose 11.1% at the EBIT level, on sales up 4%. It was yet another half year whereby the retail giant boosted profits faster than sales growth. Many people look at the net margin, but the only indicator of any importance is the EBIT margin, which, in Woolies’ case, is fat (especially for a supermarket) and growing strongly.

But what about the gross margin? But there is another key indicator that retailers watch: the gross margin: that is the first profit after all running costs (cost of doing business ) are deducted. Let Woolies tell us the story: “Gross margins for the group have increased 56bps reflecting the impact of moving from a direct to store delivery model to distribution centres in liquor, the benefits of global buying, improved shrinkage rates, increasing sales of private label products and the success of the mix of sales in the new store formats.” The gross margin rose to 25.88c in every dollar of sales, 24.62c if its hotel and poker machines are excluded. In supermarkets there was a rise of nearly three quarters of a cent to 24.41c in every dollar. This is at the expense of suppliers and others. No wonder it has made a song and dance about cutting prices and lifted dividend 11% to shareholders and revealed a $400 million buyback for them as well. It can afford to. The company has cash flow of $1.8 billion in the half year. It’s a money machine.

Words from Warren: Warren Buffet on the world’s other central bank, Berkshire Hathaway: “When the financial system went into cardiac arrest in September 2008, Berkshire was a supplier of liquidity and capital to the system, not a supplicant. At the very peak of the crisis, we poured $15.5 billion into a business world that could otherwise look only to the federal government for help. Of that, $9 billion went to bolster capital at three highly regarded and previously secure American businesses that needed — without delay — our tangible vote of confidence. The remaining $6.5 billion satisfied our commitment to help fund the purchase of Wrigley, a deal that was completed without pause while, elsewhere, panic reigned.” Two of the three were General Electric and Goldman Sachs, both of which had been wounded by their involvement in the credit crunch and by poor leadership.

On CEOs: “A board of directors of a huge financial institution is derelict if it does not insist that its CEO bear full responsibility for risk control. If he fails at it — with the government thereupon required to step in with funds or guarantees — the financial consequences for him and his board should be severe. It is the behavior of these CEOs and directors that needs to be changed.” He said shareholders hadn’t caused those meltdowns, but “they have borne the burden, with 90% or more of the value of their holdings wiped out in most cases of failure”. “The CEOs and directors of the failed companies, however, have largely gone unscathed. They have long benefitted from over-sized financial carrots; some meaningful sticks now need to be employed as well.” Tumbrills and a cutting device invented in France, I think.

But it must be remembered that by investing in the likes of Goldman Sachs and General Electric, Buffett has effectively endorsed those companies and their involvement in the crisis. Goldman Sachs is now a financial group with some notoriety (a phrase not lightly used). Hedges, CDOs, dud loans on housing, businesses, countries such as Greece, paying staff big bonuses: Goldman Sachs engaged in a long list of questionable practices during and after the boom and crunch. Likewise General Electric, where the board oversaw a rapid expansion of financial services into subprime mortgages, huge commercial property loans, car finance, credit cards to people who had difficulty paying, and a whole bunch of equally questionable securities that badly damaged one of America’s biggest companies. In both cases the management and CEO remain in place, as do the majority of the respective boards.

Where you’d rather live: On the face of it, good news from the US with the second estimate of fourth quarter GDP showing a rise of an annual rate of 5.9% from the first estimate of 5.7%. And just when the bubble was taken out of the fridge, out came existing home sales figures for January, and sadness. Down 7.2%, still higher than a year ago (that’s not easy), but not the forecast increase. It was in fact the second largest fall recorded, after the shock 15.2% slump in December. Do I detect a trend here? Blame the snow, OK. And to cap it off, the other major survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan was gloomier, matching the  mood picked up in the one a month US Conference Board report. Looking at the GDP figures, it was overwhelmingly driven by business rebuilding stocks (unsustainable) and exports (a big question mark as well). The US economy is now the size it was in May, 2007.

Sherry all round in London. UK fourth-quarter economist growth improved, as forecast last week, but not by just 0.1%, but 0.2% to 0.3% for the quarter. A veritable boom, compared with what happened earlier in the year. Ahh, the warm inner glow as the UK contemplates Germany’s flat fourth-quarter growth figures. But a bit of realism. The UK economy slumped by 5% in 2009, not one to boast about at all.

Japan: life after all? Japanese industrial production rose 2.5% in January, nicely dovetailing with a surge in exports, especially into Asia and China. Retail sales rose 2.6%, much larger than forecast (as was production). The dampener, as usual, deflation. No change in the slump in consumer prices at any level of measurement. The best one is the so-called core-core (less fresh food and energy) down an annual 1.2% in January, to go with December’s fall of the same size. That is a record, as is the 3% fall in the GDP price deflator, which captures prices in the overall economy. But the bottom line is, Japan has China to thank for saving its economic ar$3, so far.

Thanks China. Besides Japan, Taiwan, Thailand and Malaysia reported solid rebound into the black in the final quarter of last year, with exports into Asia and especially China, the driving force in every case. Taiwan said GDP rose 9.2% in the fourth quarter of last year from the same depressed quarter of 2008, the Thai economy grew 5.8% on the same comparison (although a bout of political uncertainty at the moment could hit that growing level of activity). The Malaysian economy grew 4.5% in the final quarter of last year, much stronger than forecasts, which predicted growth of about 3.4%. Taiwan’s economy also grew a strong 4.2% from the third quarter of last year, thanks to China. Singapore has lifted its first-quarter forecast as well, thanks to surging exports. It now sees GDP growing 6.5% this year, up from an earlier estimate of 5%. The economy grew 4% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. With 70% of Australia’s exports now heading into Asia, that’s good news.