The campaign speech that Julia Gillard should deliver on climate change … but won’t:

I want to talk to you today about climate change, an issue of deep and serious concern to people around this great country.

The people of Australia know the climate is changing. Our farmers are struggling with shifts in rainfall patterns and temperatures. The most ferocious bushfires on record have seen hundreds of lives tragically lost. Our cities have their water supplies at risk. Our top scientists tell us the Great Barrier Reef and Kakadu face devastating threats. And we in the developed world are the lucky ones, with the wealth and infrastructure to deal with such challenges.

Many see climate change as a great moral issue. My predecessor, a man passionately committed to global action in this area, called action on climate change the great moral challenge of our generation. He is not alone in this view. Religious leaders around the world, such as the Catholic Church in the United States have suggested such action is now a moral obligation.

With strong views on all sides, these questions have become intensely political. It has been a factor in the demise of our past two Prime Minsters, John Howard and Kevin Rudd, and it has seen us move through three leaders of the opposition in just a few years.

But while many see this question in moral terms, this is not the consensus view. Some people, such as my opponent in this election Tony Abbott, argue we must first and foremost protect our short-term national economic interest and therefore we shouldn’t act until the world does.

I know Mr Abbott also has doubts about the science of climate change. While I harbour no such doubts, I know he is not alone in those views. So that is not the basis for the consensus we need. Nor is the moral argument, which has caused division in our community by painting those who oppose action as somehow morally bereft, as uncaring about their children’s future. Whatever the morality of the issue, that approach has proven divisive and unhelpful to moving forward.

As I said when I had the honour of being appointed to this office, it is now time to move forward, to build a consensus on how we will respond to this pressing and urgent issue. So how are we to do so? I would like to argue today the basis to build such a consensus is on the grounds of protecting our economy.

While some argue white Australia’s early economy was built on the sheep’s back, our present economy was largely built on the atmosphere’s back. Cheap and plentiful coal has given us competitive advantage with low cost, reliable energy supplies that have made investing here very attractive. Our coal exports have also brought considerable benefit to our balance of payments and created well-paid jobs for working families across the country. As a result of this great advantage, much of our economy is built on high carbon infrastructure, making it understandable we resist change.

However, we now face a moment of truth and it’s time political leaders were honest with the Australian people and that’s what I will be with you today.

We are going to have to change. We are going to lose certain jobs and industries and have to replace them with new ones. We need to manage this process carefully. We are going to have to pay more for our electricity and learn to use less of it to compensate. We are going to have change our farming practices, our transport systems and the design of our houses.

Whatever we think about the science, the morality, or the economics, we now have no choice. This is because the global community has decided that the risks posed by climate change are unacceptable and we need to limit warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. This target has been agreed to by governments such as China, the US, Japan and India and has been endorsed by hundreds of global companies ranging from mining giant Rio Tinto, to industrial companies such as GE, to banks such as HSBC.

This target will inevitably result in a global economy with little-to-no net carbon emissions, requiring dramatic reductions over the coming decades. This has widespread implications for Australia. For a start, unless we can make carbon capture and storage economically competitive, it will result in the end of the Australian coal industry. It means our power infrastructure will have to be transformed to renewables. It means our cars will need to be pollution-free. All this is now well understood by our key trading partners, the US, China, Europe, Korea and Japan. They are all clearly moving in this direction, seeing clean energy technologies as the new competitive battleground.

This global economic transition has begun and, to be frank, Australia is not ready. If we don’t manage this well, our economy will suffer, along with our natural world. As the lead negotiator on climate change for the United States, Todd Stern, said: “Those who hang back and cling to a high-carbon path will be economic losers in the end because, with the scientific facts of global warming getting worse and worse, high-carbon products and production methods will not be viable for long.”

So the unpleasant truth is that Australia is now lagging behind while the world races ahead to a clean and exciting future. While many argue our total emissions are low, this is only relevant to the environmental impact of change. Australia ranks, in per capita terms, among the highest CO2 polluters in the world; and it is per capita emissions that define the threat to our economy in a world with a price on carbon.

So if I am re-elected, I will seek to build a consensus on the need for change. As we have done with defence policy, we need to establish a foundation of bipartisanship and then debate only the details. Such a consensus has been built in countries such as the UK, Germany and France, where ministers from these three conservative governments called last week for the European CO2 reduction target to be increased to 30% by 2020, not on moral grounds but from fear they would lose the economic race to a low carbon future to countries such as China.

My desire for consensus will not, however, become an excuse for inaction. As part of our formal campaign launch we will be making clear how, if elected, my government will lead the country forward. I will explain why we need a price on carbon in the next two years; how we can make our homes and offices 30% more energy efficient by 2020; how we need to ensure 30% of our energy will come from renewable sources by 2025; and how we can support our farmers in their efforts to lock up carbon in our soils and in our trees.

These are the actions we will advocate to the broader community, actions that would create secure jobs, drive investment and allow our companies to compete in a global economy.

I will provide more details in coming days but my point here is to be honest to hard-working Australians, that we all have hard work ahead. Yes, unfortunately because of our past failures, there is a need for more talk first. Talk to build agreement not just across political parties but across business, unions, farmers, investors and the broader community. We need this agreement if we are to move as fast as we now must, to catch up to the world.

This need for more talk, though, will have a defined end. If I am elected as Prime Minister, we will in the next parliament have a comprehensive, legislated plan — one supported by the community — to put Australia at the forefront of global action on climate change and get our country ready for the future. And we will do so because it is clear to me that climate change is the great economic challenge of our generation.

This article first appeared on Climate Spectator