If you want evidence of how devoid of serious content this election is — as if we hadn’t had enough already — then look no further than the response to yesterday’s housing approval figures.
They were simply awful. There’s no other way to describe them. Economists have repeatedly expected the housing sector to bounce back from the withdrawal of the first home owners’ boost stimulus component last year. The sector has repeatedly disappointed them. The trend in total dwelling units approved and private houses approved has been relentlessly downward since the end of year.
The trend in building approval value is the same. There were particularly serious falls for total dwellings in NSW (3.9% in trend terms) and WA (nearly 6% in trend terms). South Australia saw a collapse in June, with total dwelling approvals falling more than one-quarter. The only good news is in the Territories, which recorded growth.
It’s clear that, without artificial stimulus — and some construction groups are already calling for a return of the home owners’ boost (which was targeted at new homes) — the residential construction sector continues to suffer from a dearth of finance from the major banks to the residential construction sector, and continuing state and local governments impediments to housing supply responding to demand.
Did any of this get a run yesterday in the election campaign? One journalist — I didn’t recognise the voice so I apologise for not identifying him — raised it with Julia Gillard. Joe Hockey mentioned it in passing in his comments on the RBA decision. Otherwise, despite the campaign notionally turning to the economy this week, it passed untroubled into the financial media pages.
It’s particularly bizarre that Labor is avoiding the issue. After all, Labor has ramped up investment in social and defence housing. It has propped up the non-bank lending market through one of its most under-appreciated achievements, its support of the Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities market. It has set up a COAG process to deal with infrastructure planning and provision across governments, which is one of the biggest impediments to housing supply responding to demand. It has slung $200 million in the election campaign at that problem in regional towns.
After years of governments neglecting the issue — or actually exacerbating the problem — Labor has shown evidence it understood the seriousness of the developing housing supply crisis. But why isn’t it focusing on strengthening competition for the big banks? Why isn’t it, for example, encouraging Australia Post to start competing with the Big Four in financial services, rather than cooperating with them and using post offices to further strengthen their grip on lending at the expense of smaller players?
Maybe Labor has been scared by its experience with the mining companies. But does anyone seriously think some gutsy policies aimed at returning some serious competition to mortgage lending — thereby freeing up more finance for business lending — would see the banks running an effective propaganda campaign with voters?
So far, though, it’s a non-issue for campaigning politicians and the media.
Crikey is committed to hosting lively discussions. Help us keep the conversation useful, interesting and welcoming. We aim to publish comments quickly in the interest of promoting robust conversation, but we’re a small team and we deploy filters to protect against legal risk. Occasionally your comment may be held up while we review, but we’re working as fast as we can to keep the conversation rolling.
The Crikey comment section is members-only content. Please subscribe to leave a comment.
The Crikey comment section is members-only content. Please login to leave a comment.