• As Labor did, the Liberals have adopted a risk-averse, front runner strategy to sit on their lead until polling day. That’s why we saw a policy-free launch yesterday, more coronation than manifesto for government, designed to invite voters to hit the reset button on the Rudd years and go back to the certainties of the Howard era. It was all about why voters shouldn’t vote Labor rather than why they should vote Liberal. But it relies on Labor continuing to remind voters of their own problems.
  • The Cairns cab driver who last week was reported as saying it looked like Tony Abbott was afraid to debate Julia Gillard that might have swung it. We’re off to Rooty Hill for a debate, pitched as a “town hall meeting”. But don’t get too excited, the question is whether the format will be any freer than the rubbish we saw at the NPC a fortnight ago.
  • Today Joe Hockey takes on Wayne Swan at the National Press Club. The event would make more sense if a bunch of economists and business figures were there to interrogate the candidates for Treasurer, rather than journalists. It might also be worthwhile asking both men who has been most influential in their approach to economics. Last week Essential Research’s Peter Lewis asked Joe Hockey which economics books he had read lately. Hockey said he read a lot of briefing notes. Wonder what Swan might say?
  • There’s not too much of interest in today’s curiously-underplayed Newspoll – movements with margin of error and all that — except what’s not happening. The Green vote is remaining steady (in fact it slightly increased, from 12 to 13%). If the Greens were on course for their usual polling day disappointment, you’d expect those numbers to start softening, especially as major parties’ advertising begins to take its toll. It hasn’t happened yet. I’d be amazed if they managed 13% nationally, but a number of polls keep saying they will.
  • The impact of the Latham “intervention” on the weekend is yet to be played out, but I suspect George Megalogenis was right in suggesting yesterday that there appears to be a pattern of men trying to undermine our first female prime minister. Gillard’s coolness and grace in the face of Latham’s boorish aggression might be the key image for voters, rather than Labor divisions.