• There is much to wonder about in Labor’s extension of its paid parental leave scheme to fathers/secondary carers. The Productivity Commission recommended a two-week period for fathers, but noted that overseas experience suggested it did not lead to any significant changes in behaviour by male breadwinners — it simply topped up their income for leave they took anyway. As good as it is encouraging men to stay home with their newborns, it’s something that most of us do using existing leave arrangements anyway. Paid parental leave is a workforce participation measure, not welfare or income support, and extending it to fathers doesn’t increase its effectiveness in that regard, even if there are demonstrated benefits in maximising the interaction of fathers and newborns. In effect, the Government is proposing another handout for much the same group it has been targeting since before the election, Family Tax Benefit A recipients. And why was the announcement left until the very end of an election campaign, rather than being part of the broader parental leave scheme from the outset?
  • The polls continue to be utterly unhelpful in picking a winner tomorrow. There is a perception that the momentum that had flowed back toward Labor over the last fortnight has halted, which Newspoll appears to confirm. But then Galaxy, which has never done Labor any favours, appears to have swung its way. I suspect the complete lack of engagement by voters in this election — something that political journalists seems to be curiously reticent about discussing — is responsible both for the tightness of the polls and their failure to tell any consistent story about where voters are heading during the campaign.
  • And then there are the betting markets. I know my colleague Richard Farmer is a strong advocate of betting markets over polls (and he is correct to suggest that Labor’s “leaked” internal polling yesterday was a stunt). I remain sceptical and the current dichotomy between Labor’s short price to win and the seat-by-seat results, which suggest a hung Parliament or the Coalition scraping a narrow win, is doing nothing to convince me. I think betting follows polls and only in rare cases reflect either inside knowledge or the wisdom of crowds. Still, we’ll find out tomorrow when we see how many punters have done their dough.
  • This morning both sides are carpet-bombing FM radio in a continuing effort to reach voters they won’t normally get to through the Big Boring Media. Tony Abbott’s “36 hour continuous campaign” might have been silly – there aren’t too many swinging voters available on talkback radio in the middle of the night, I’d respectfully suggest – but it was a nice image for him to finish with, making him look full of running.
  • There’s a line in Full Metal Jacket about how one of the characters “just needs someone to throw hand grenades at him for the rest of his life.” Julia Gillard started very flatly at the Press Club yesterday — understandably, since both she and Tony Abbott must be exhausted — but by the q&a when journalists began asking her about pork-barrelling in marginal electorates was in fine form, the sort of form we used to enjoy as she savaged the Opposition in Question Time. Gillard’s best performances in the campaign have been in hostile circumstances that have reactivated the pre-prime ministerial Gillard. If only Labor could have arranged for someone to throw hand grenades at her throughout the campaign. Then again, someone in Labor did try to, but has only chucked two so far.
  • Right, now for something lighter to finish this five weeks of torture on. Here’s a war Cabinet of the best performers of the last parliament, drawn from all sides of politics, based on not merely their performance in respective portfolios but general entertainment value. Discuss.
  • Prime Minister Lindsay Tanner
  • Treasurer – Wayne Swan
  • Foreign Minister – Stephen Smith
  • Education & Industrial Relations – Julia Gillard
  • Finance – Andrew Robb
  • Transport – Malcolm Turnbull
  • Climate Change and Water – Christine Milne (junior minister Simon Birmingham)
  • Environment & Heritage – Greg Combet (junior minister Peter Garrett)
  • Communications – Scott Ludlam (junior minister Kate Lundy)
  • Health – Nicola Roxon
  • Superannuation – Nick Sherry
  • Ageing – Christopher Pyne
  • Families and Community Services – Jenny Macklin (junior minister Nick Xenophon)
  • Industry – Joe Hockey
  • Assistant Treasurer and Human Services – Chris Bowen
  • Special Minister of State – John Faulkner
  • Defence – Nick Minchin
  • Immigration and Citizenship – Petro Georgiou
  • Attorney-General – Mark Dreyfus
  • Housing – Tanya Plibersek
  • Resources – Ian Macfarlane
  • Trade – Simon Crean
  • Indigenous Affairs – Tony Abbott
  • Tourism – Steve Ciobo