Howard and Rudd, in a move Catholic News calls unprecedented, will be staging a debate via webcast next Thursday.

There’s been little reporting of this upcoming event in the national media, but a lot of it in the religious press and online outlets. The webcast has been organised by the Australian Christian Lobby, and will feature questions from “Christian leaders”; churches will “use the event as a platform to pray for the election”.

Rudd seems to be winning the war for religious voters’ esteem, according to recent online qualitative polling conducted by The National Forum. Rudd identified the need for Labor to neutralise the Coalition’s perceived advantage among devout Christian voters early in this parliamentary term, and has obviously made no secret of his own beliefs in a series of carefully timed interviews and articles.

But the research coordinated by Graham Young also found that Christians’ approval of political leaders’ beliefs doesn’t necessarily translate into voting intentions.

As in many other areas of Australian politics, what we are seeing here is a transposition of American political techniques and an adaptation of American debates. The narrative of the theocratisation of Australian politics is a convenient one for both secularists and the religious. Secularists get to decry the influence of religion on politics, and Christians get to exert influence on public policy out of all proportion to their actual electoral strength.

As I argued recently in On Line Opinion, the recent census figures on religiosity suggest that Australia is still one of the most secular nations in the world, and the trend against organised religion is accelerating very quickly among younger citizens.

Similarly, a cross-tabulation of the census figures on Pentecostal affiliation (a very tiny group numerically, though growing quickly proportionately) with the Family First vote in the Victorian state election shows their vote is very evenly distributed and not highly correlated with active Christian religiosity. Though the many foot soldiers Christians can turn out for campaigning are an asset, it’s much more likely that the family friendly message, rather than religious factors, accounts for what strength Family First does have electorally.

It’s intriguing then, that the first time Howard and Rudd will meet in debate this election year is a pitch aimed directly at church leaders.