The Liberal Party stands for nothing, according to a report by Victorian Legislative Council leader Philip Davis obtained by the Melbourne Age. This is not necessarily a bad thing. Indeed, it may have been the secret behind many of the party’s successes in the past.

David Kemp’s great essay on the party from 1973, A Leader and a Philosophy, certainly ranked the words in the right order. The Liberals don’t really have a philosophy. Instead, they have leaders they vest everything in. The leaders set the direction and are tolerated as long as they win – or look like winning. Winning – not even leaders – may be the key to the Liberal Party.

The Liberals, after all, are children of success. Remarkable political success. They have won nine federal elections between 1949 and 1969, three between 1975 and 1980 and then another four between 1996 and 2004. Perhaps the darkest time for the party came when it thought it would win, but didn’t: with John Hewson in 1993. Dark, but brief. We all know what happened at the next election.

The last two changes of federal government have been achieved in part by oppositions minimising policy differences. Ever since Hewson, convention wisdom has said philosophy – too much detail – loses elections. Instead, everything depends on the leaders. But there are still matters of balance between leaders and winning.

The Liberals lost last month in part because they got this wrong. Senior Liberals realised John Howard would lead them to defeat, but were too afraid to depose him after his four victories. Alexander Downer shows just how badly the thinking of the (supposed) top political brains of the Howard government had gone awry.

In a detailed piece on the weekend covering the APEC leadership soundings, Paul Kelly writes “Downer said later that ‘ministers unanimously felt that demanding Howard’s departure would destroy the Coalition in its heartland’.”

The heartland? What about the voters in the marginals? There is no clearer demonstration of just how confused Liberal thinking became.

Alan Ramsey quoted a line from Victorian MHR Sophie Mirabella from the Liberal love-in that dissected the defeat in his column last weekend.

“So,” she said, “why were we hostage to one man?”

The answer is easy. It’s because the Liberal Party succeeds or fails on its leader.

For all the talk about new policy directions, philosophy doesn’t really come into it.

That is why the cloud over Brendan Nelson’s election is so ominous as the party begins only its third period in opposition.