As
Australia debates tax cuts while still two years out from an election,
New Zealand is in the more common position of having them central to an
election campaign. And it looks as if the issue has finally given the
opposition National Party some good news. A new opinion poll in this
morning’s New Zealand Herald
puts the Nationals ahead, 41% to 39%. That’s up from a 41-37 deficit in
the previous poll, and 41-21 (yes, 21) at the 2002 election. The poll
was conducted following the National Party’s release of its tax policy,
which provides for substantial cuts along the lines of those contained
in Australia’s last budget.

The good news for Labour is that the
Greens are at 6%, above the 5% threshold for party representation. If
that holds, and if Labour’s alliances with the smaller parties remain
intact, they would still come out narrowly ahead. The tax cuts seem to
have attracted public support, but for their policy centrepiece the
Nationals must have hoped for a bigger boost than this. According to The Herald,
“Prime Minister Helen Clark told TV3 National had made a ‘small gain
and I think they’ll be disappointed they only had one really good
policy’.” It’s odd for a leader to say the other side’s policy is
“really good,” but Clark may be right to think that the Nationals have
now used up their ammunition.

It’s also another reminder of what
a poor tool democratic politics are for discovering what people
actually want. If the Nationals fall short, does that mean the
electorate wasn’t so keen on tax cuts? Or does it mean that other
issues, such as possible participation in the Iraq war, were more
important? Or just that they thought Don Brash was too inexperienced
for the job?