The market is defying the odds again and is now up 19 having been down 82 earlier. The SFE Futures were down 99 this morning.

The Dow Jones closed down 520 overnight. It was the third straight day of 400 plus point swings. The Dow has been down 635, up 420, down 520 in three days. The S&P 500 closed down 4.2% and is now down 17.8% from its 2011 high. The European debt crisis was back in focus with concern about French banks and their exposure to Greek debt — an issue that might threaten the French AAA rating. The oil price was up $3.59 to $82.89, and gold was up $41.30 to $1782.70 and rose above $1800 during the day. The A$ dollar is buying 101.40c down from 103.55c yesterday.

In the news today…

  • Telstra (TLS) reported annual net profit of $3.23bn, above market expectations of $3.09bn, but down 17% from $3.88bn in the previous year. “We’ve exceeded guidance in all areas,” CEO David Thodey said. Telstra had forecast “flattish” growth in sales revenue and a high single-digit decline in EBITDA. They talk about returning to EBITDA growth in 2012. Revenue rose 0.7% to $25.09bn. They will pay a full year dividend of 28c. TLS up 12c to 295c. Cum a 14c dividend.
  • Alumina (AWC) first half profit up 53% to $US67.7m, saying the demand for aluminium continues to grow, putting the company in a “solid” position. But the company sees short term volatility and higher cash costs. AWC down 6.8%.
  • David Jones (DJS) has reported a 10.3% fall in 4Q sales. They say their 1H 2012 guidance for a 15-20% decline in profit is at risk with the recent market turbulence keeping shoppers at home. DJS down 5.7%.
  • GPT Group (GPT) has upgraded its 6-month and full year earnings guidance. They expect operating income in the 6 months to June 30 to be 7-8% higher than a year earlier. GPT will reactivate its on-market share buy-back. GPT up 2.4%.
  • Singapore Telecommunications (SGT) posted a 2.9% fall in quarterly profit, with a 7.4% drop in underlying profit. Optus posted a 5% fall in quarterly profit and described the result as “resilient” amid intense competition. SGT down 2.1%.
  • Webjet (WEB) annual profit up 5% to $11.006m and the company says it expects to double the result in the current year. Revenue was up 18%. The company declared a final dividend of 6 cents, taking full year dividends to 11c. WEB up 2c to 180c.
  • News Corp. (NWS) reported a 22% drop in fiscal 4th quarter earnings but a better than expected 11% rise in revenue. The company posted a quarterly profit of US$683m, down from US$875m a year ago. Rupert Murdoch that he was “personally determined to put things right” in relation to the News of the World phone hacking scandal. NWS said it would increase its dividend and may spend money on additional share buybacks. NWS up 2% to 1449c.

What to do…

  • Same as yesterday — There is no bull market starting here. Nothing had changed, no problems have been solved and the evidence that the market is good “value” is not established. The outlook remains very uncertain. The rallies are hollow. The volatility is horrendous. The charts are terrible. The trend is still down. Establishing the grounds for a sustained bull market will take more than a technical rebound without basis.
  • Despite all that, we are not painting ourselves into a corner of perpetual bearishness. We are open-minded about a bounce — market “sentiment” is not a science and we are so deep in the depths that an improvement at some point is inevitable. If so we will play it in “quality” (lower risk) stocks in the trading section on daily data with stop losses.
  • Until then +6.5% in the bank is a great way to spend the time and for long term portfolio investors … it could be some time.

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