Who wins from the rates rise? Who loses? It mightn’t be quite as obvious as we’re lead to believe.

We already have The Australian/On Line Opinion polling that suggests that voters won’t blame the PM.

Look at the list of the 25 seats where the highest proportion of voters agree with the proposition “I’m worried about interest rates at the moment”, compliled from Roy Morgan Research’s electorate profiles:

Percentage of electors who agree “I’m worried about interest rates at the moment”

Electorate

% of electors

2PP Pre-Rudd

2PP Post-Rudd

Prospect (NSW)

60.58%

LNP 42.5%,
ALP 57.5%

LNP 43.5%,
ALP 56.5%

Fowler (NSW)

56.26%

LNP 29.5%,
ALP 70.5%

LNP 29.5%,
ALP 70.5%

Werriwa (NSW)

53.08%

LNP 43.5%,
ALP 56.5%

LNP 34.5%,
ALP 65.5%

Hume (NSW)

52.79%

LNP 44%,
ALP 56%

LNP 43.5%,
ALP 56.5%

Calwell (Vic)

52.14%

LNP 36%,
ALP 64%

LNP 24.5%,
ALP 75.5%

Watson (NSW)

51.59%

LNP 45%,
ALP 55%

LNP 38.5%,
ALP 61.5%

Lalor (Vic)

51.18%

LNP 37%,
ALP 63%

LNP 36.5%,
ALP 63.5%

Charlton (NSW)

50.05%

LNP 39%,
ALP 61%

LNP 38.5%,
ALP 61.5%

McMillan (Vic)

49.82%

LNP 54.5%,
ALP 45.5%

LNP 47%,
ALP 53%

Dobell (NSW)

49.41%

LNP 47%,
ALP 53%

LNP 33%,
ALP 67%

Blair (Qld)

49.36%

LNP 41.5%,
ALP 58.5%

LNP 39.5%,
ALP 60.5%

Hughes (NSW)

48.98%

LNP 52.5%,
ALP 47.5%

LNP 39%,
ALP 61%

Grey (SA)

48.97%

LNP 41%,
ALP 59%

LNP 45%,
ALP 55%

Dawson (Qld)

48.63%

LNP 41.5%,
ALP 58.5%

LNP 32.5%,
ALP 67.5%

New England (NSW)

48.32%

LNP 47.5%,
ALP 52.5%

LNP 49.5%,
ALP 50.5%

Calare (NSW)

48.06%

LNP 53.5%,
ALP 46.5%

LNP 45%,
ALP 55%

Forde (Qld)

47.78%

LNP 49%,
ALP 51%

LNP 40.5%,
ALP 59.5%

La Trobe (Vic)

46.90%

LNP 52.5%,
ALP 47.5%

LNP 48%,
ALP 52%

Lindsay (NSW)

46.75%

LNP 48%,
ALP 52%

LNP 34%,
ALP 66%

Cowan (WA)

46.71%

LNP 49.5%,
ALP 50.5%

LNP 38%,
ALP 62%

Fadden (Qld)

46.55%

LNP 54.5%,
ALP 45.5%

LNP 49.5%,
ALP 50.5%

Capricornia (Qld)

46.35%

LNP 35%,
ALP 65%

LNP 28%,
ALP 72%

Wide Bay (Qld)

46.28%

LNP 55%,
ALP 45%

LNP 38%,
ALP 62%

Chifley (NSW)

46.14%

LNP 34%,
ALP 66%

LNP 38.5%,
ALP 61.5%

Macarthur (NSW)

46.04%

LNP 47.5%,
ALP 52.5%

LNP 52.5%,
ALP 47.5%

Only four of them are key Coalition marginals – McMillan, Dobell, Blair and Lindsay. The top three are all Labor seats in the Sydney burbs.

Still, Coalition seats outnumber Labor electorates in the list, 14 to 10. They include campaign wildcards like Hughes in Sydney’s south and the massive regional South Australian seat of Grey.