By proposing the constitutional recognition of the Aboriginal people, John Howard has turned the tables on Kevin Rudd – the ALP platform has a similar proposal. This illustrates Sol Lebovic’s prescient observation that polls are like football scores during a game.

The analogy was demonstrated in the World Rugby Cup. It wasn’t the “major lesson” Peter FitzSimons announced just before the French and English wins – that the Southern hemisphere was now the elephant in world rugby and the north an “emaciated chicken.” Alan Jones, a successful coach, offers a more realistic analysis.

The lesson is that whether in rugby or elections, the favourite doesn’t necessarily win. France trailed New Zealand until the final 11 minutes.

Some of the journalists were caught out last weekend. FitzSimons had told Jonny Wilkinson to ”lose with dignity.” Wayne Smith, The Australian’s rugby editor, dismissed the “poor” English as “bumblers.” It’s the same with elections. When Malcolm MacKerras predicted the defeat of the Bjelke-Petersen government, the re-elected Premier sent him a scrubbing brush. Asked what the brush was for, Sir Joh replied: “It’s to scrub the egg off your face.”

The Coalition is certainly not the favourite, but their position is no worse than France’s or England’s last week. Herald pollster John Stirton identifies up to 7 per cent of voters who could switch to the Coalition. Newspoll suggests 30 per cent don’t make up their minds until the last week, 13 per cent of them on election day. Morgan says a significant proportion of Labor voters are “soft.” A poll-like landslide is unlikely. A good number of those inclined to vote Labor will probably leak to the Coalition; the central issue is whether they will be sufficient – and in the right seats – for the Coalition to retain office.

Just as at Cardiff, it all depends on how the game is played.