Richard Farmer’s chunky bits

Surprise, surprise — the PM’s back at school. When you are on a good thing, stick to it. The Prime Minister’s photo opportunity for yesterday.

And Tony readies his bike. No Lycra yet, but there soon will be. The Opposition Leader announced the itinerary for the annual Pollie Pedal, which he describes as enabling him “to engage with people in ways that are rarely possible through politics-as-usual”.

Interest rate update. No change in official rates remains the most likely probability when the Reserve Bank holds its pre-budget board meeting on the first Tuesday in May. The Crikey Interest Rate Indicator puts the chances of a 0.25-point reduction at just 22%.

Even that seems a  bit high to me. A prudent board surely would wait until it can evaluate what is actually likely to get through the Parliament from Labor’s budget proposals before acting.

Carbon trading problems. Those hopes of a world carbon market playing a significant part in Australian efforts to curb carbon dioxide emissions any year soon are looking more and more remote.

Overnight members of the European Parliament narrowly voted against a so-called “backloading” proposal that would have cut the huge surplus of allowances currently being traded. Because of this excess, reports the BBC, the price of carbon on the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) has plunged to less than five euros a tonne.

Opponents won the day by arguing the plan would push up energy costs. That’s the same argument the Coalition will keep pushing until our election day.

Mumbo, jumbo, rhubarb, rhubarb. Less than five months to go. Time to start being serious about our next election. Time, even, to start analysing opinion polls! So to get us in the mood to properly interpret the words we will hear in an ever-growing torrent, may I present Mr Little Chap, your opportunist candidate:

News and views noted along the way.

• Merely a taste of beer can trigger a rush of chemical pleasure in the brain — “Scientists have long known that part of the reason alcohol induces pleasure is that intoxication leads to the release of dopamine, which is associated with the use of other drugs (as well as sleep and s-x) and acts as a reward for the brain. But new research suggests that, for some people, intoxication isn’t necessary: Simply the taste of beer alone can provoke a release of the neurotransmitter within minutes.”
• Syria’s forgotten front — “As the civil war in Syria rages on, the risk that Israel will be drawn into the fray is rising.”
• Perspectives on research with H5N1 avian influenza — Scientific inquiry, communication, controversy: summary of a workshop
• 12 rules of goldbuggery — “The reaction to Gold’s crash has produced some astonishing rationalizations. The refusal to acknowledge basic trading facts leads us to recognize that Gold bugs and traders have very specific rules that they MUST follow. These social conventions look less like a debate about asset classes and more like a religious cult.”
• Augmented inflation targeting: Le roi est mort, vive le roi — “Despite economists’ worries and the many unknowns ahead, there really is no alternative in a post-Crisis world. Augmented inflation targeting is here to stay.”
• ‘How much unemployment was caused by Reinhart and Rogoff’s arithmetic mistake?’