Support for the Coalition is on the increase, according to the latest Morgan Poll of federal voting intention. Pollster Gary Morgan cites the recent world market wobbles as a prime cause of a 4.5% lift in coalition primary vote in a face to face poll taken over the weekends of August 19/19 and August 25/26.

The poll put the coalition at 41% of the primary vote to Labor’s 46% (down 3.5%). Two party preferred support for the coalition improved by 4%, putting the government at 45.5% and the ALP at 54.5% (down 4%).

According to Gary Morgan: “The recent financial scare on the Australian share market has pushed some swinging voters back to the Coalition. The scare, which was sparked by concerns with the US sub-prime mortgage market, was looked upon by many as a long overdue correction; however, it concerned the large number of ‘mum and dad’ investors, who in a few days saw a significant drop in the value shares and the Australian dollar.

“As Roy Morgan Qualitative Research (released on August 29) has identified, economic management is seen as the Coalition’s major strength, so it is no surprise that in times of economic uncertainty some electors will switch to the incumbent Government.

“Labor still holds a significant lead on a two-party preferred basis (54.5% cf. 45.5%), however, a week is a long time in politics and it will take only one unforeseen event (such as Howard and Costello working as a team!) to catapult the Coalition back into contention.

“The L-NP will be buoyed by the fact that Labor’s current primary vote (46%), while still high, is the second lowest face-to face Morgan Poll result since Kevin Rudd became ALP leader in early December 2006.”