Labor wants people to be paid $300 to get vaccinated. Is that so crazy?

Labor leader Anthony Albanese wants Australians to be paid $300 to get vaccinated. So, naturally, government MPs have spent the morning media rounds telling Australians why it’s a terrible idea.

“The evidence says it is unnecessary and unlikely to work,” Finance Minister Simon Birmingham told the ABC this morning. “Frankly it’s a little bit insulting to the millions of Australians who already did the right thing.”

But is the idea really that crazy? One problem is we’re not far enough into the global vaccine rollout to know with certainty what kind of incentives work or don’t to cut through the haze of hesitancy.

On the other hand, one small silver lining to Australia lagging behind the rest of the world is that we can, theoretically, look overseas to see what’s being tried. 

Some evidence that cash works

Last week US President Joe Biden urged state and local governments to pay people $100 to get the vaccine as the Delta strain rips through unvaccinated communities across the country.

Albanese’s plan, which would be worth about $6 billion, and include paying people who are already vaccinated, would be one of the most broad and generous in the developed world. It’s also consistent with Biden’s approach, Griffith University social marketing expert Sameer Deshpande says. 

“What Labor has proposed is in line with what governments in other parts of the world, especially the US, are doing,” he said. 

There’s also some research showing the success of cash incentives. A meta-analysis of other vaccination programs found that financial incentives led to a seven-fold increase in uptake. 

“We know from research where the incentive is assured, personal and immediate it’s more attractive,” Deshpande said.

Australian National University behavioural economist Ralf Steinhauser says cash incentives could be a good idea since at a certain point anything that pushed the hesitant on would be beneficial

“Every 5% matters; any amount will make a difference,” he said. 

What are the alternatives?

The Morrison government’s counter plan is about “freedom incentives” — where the vaccinated are rewarded with restaurant vouchers and frequent-flyer points. It relied on research from the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet which appeared to throw cold water on the effectiveness of vaccine payments.

Frequent-flyer points might be less effective, Deshpande says, since they’re probabilistic and long-term — particularly as international borders are closed. 

Still, there has been a range of incentives tried around the world — from the generous to the downright goofy. A town in Thailand put people in a lottery to win a cow. In Washington state, you can get a joint. Free beer in New Jersey. A pound of crawfish in New Orleans. 

Steinhauser says the advantage of that approach is it reaches people in their everyday lives, and provides them with an additional convenience or boost for getting vaccinated.

“The factor which has worked well in lots of countries is to pick people up in their daily lives where they are and give them a small extra benefit,” he said.

But that only works in a situation where getting vaccinated is very convenient. In Australia it’s still anything but, particularly for younger people who are eligible for the widely available AstraZeneca but still being denied it by some doctors while stocks of Pfizer remain low.

Australia’s problem isn’t only hesitancy. There’s the Morrison government’s failure to secure enough Pfizer, botched communication from politicians, media and health experts which deterred AstraZeneca uptake, and a demographic mismatch around vaccine supply. 

“The problem in Australia isn’t so much with hesitancy,” Deshpande said. “The real problem is with supply and miscommunication.”

He says any incentive program needs to consider the various types of people who aren’t vaccinated. For example, while a small cash incentive or free meal might cut through to people who are mildly hesitant, or younger, it might not shift the dial for people who have barriers to access, or are deeply resistant. 

Labor’s plan will probably drive some people on the fence to get vaccinated — and add a handy bit of fiscal stimulus on the side. But it won’t address the structural reasons our rollout is such a debacle. That’s on the government.

Would you roll up your sleeve if you’d get $300 for doing so? Write to letters@crikey.com.au. Remember to include your full name if you’d like to be considered for publication.