Numbers reflect a grim political reality that leaders need to prepare for now

There is no plausible scenario on offer from pandemic modellers that does not involve Australia either continuing to endure lockdowns and mandated mask-wearing and social distancing well into 2022, or tens of thousands of COVID cases a day and, at the very least, double-digit deaths every day.

Which of those scenarios is more politically palatable?

With the latest iteration of the national pandemic plan promising the commencement of reopening once 70% of the eligible population are vaccinated, most modelling suggests that will see huge numbers of cases, albeit with significantly decreased deaths and hospitalisations due to vaccination. Even the best-case scenario sees up to 10,000 new cases a day and 20 deaths.

Twenty deaths a day is a small number compared to other diseases, but COVID deaths have taken on a particular resonance both among the public and among politicians. And we already know that both governments and voters are very bad at being consistent when it comes to different, preventable causes of death — we have a huge tolerance for preventable deaths that fit within our concept of everyday life, like falls and motor accidents, but zero tolerance for other forms like terrorism that kill virtually no one.

Even with low death numbers, tens of thousands of cases will yield significant pressure on the hospital system and redirection of health resources to COVID patients, leading to poorer health outcomes than in a pre-pandemic context.

There’s no escape from this — not without economically enervating lockdowns that, by the third year of the pandemic, might be starting to pall on even normal, well-adjusted people. Politicians and the health officials that have been dragged into the spotlight with them need to prepare Australians for the kind of post-pandemic life being “enjoyed” in places like the US and the UK — widespread infection, hospitalisation and deaths, mainly among the unvaccinated, displaced health resources and a wariness about what the next variant might mean for mortality and transmissibility.

And all this will have to happen in the run-up to a federal election in which the government’s vaccination and quarantine performance are intended to be the central themes for an opposition now with more than a sniff of victory.

If you think the pandemic had already been politicised, wait until there’s 10,000 cases a day and we’re being told it’s fine, we’re going to reopen borders and end lockdowns and an election campaign is in full swing.

The divisions and arguments this year around quarantine, the botched rollout and the east coast lockdowns may end up seeming trivial by comparison.