NSW Sydney COVID-19
(Image: AAP/Mick Tsikas)

NSW Police Commissioner Mick Fuller has wasted no time in using his new role as State Emergency Operations controller to strengthen police powers and clamp down on movement in Sydney. 

As of midnight last night, there will be 700 Australian Defence Force members helping NSW police. Movement has been reduced from 10km to a 5km radius for those in Greater Sydney and, in areas of concern, single buddies have to register with the government with outdoor “recreation” no longer allowed. 

“These are some of the strongest powers we’ve ever had in the history of the NSW Police Force,” Fuller said. 

Less than a week prior, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian promised to only implement new restrictions if there was evidence to support them. But many of these new restrictions aren’t backed by science, and don’t even tackle key areas of transmission. 

Where are the cases coming from?

There have been several examples of people flagrantly disregarding rules, from over 50 people attending a house in Pendle Hill to grieve over the death of a family member, to a party in the Meriton Suites Waterloo, to a 21-year-old travelling to Newcastle and attending parties, sparking a cluster in the city. 

There have been beach parties in Clovelly, barbeques in Blacktown, and of course a massive anti-lockdown protest in Sydney’s CBD which Police Minister David Elliott believes caused a surge in cases (though the government hasn’t released data on who at the march became infected).

While some of this is among deliberate rule-breakers, 18 months into the pandemic there’s still a huge gap in communication with culturally and linguistically diverse communities. Two weeks ago SBS launched a live translation service of the daily NSW government COVID-19 press conference in six languages. 

Many of the cases, especially in Sydney’s west and south-west, are occurring in workplaces where many are employed in distribution centres, food, logistics, and transport.

In mid-July, one in 10 infected people had caught COVID at work, with clusters emerging at seafood wholesaler Great Ocean Food in Marrickville and the Crossways Hotel in Strathfield. Exposure sites show banks, postal offices, supermarkets, pharmacies, and cafes offering takeaway have at times have been suspected to be transmission sites. 

While masks have been mandatory in workplaces for almost two months, more needs to be done — from encouraging more click-and-collect or deliveries of goods, to extra financial support for those who need assurance their job will still be there when restrictions ease. 

 ✖ Limiting outdoor activity

One of the key changes to NSW’s rules is removing “outdoor recreation” as a reason to go outside and limiting it to exercise. 

There has been limited evidence of outdoor transmission. While a party at Blacksmith beach in Newcastle is believed to have caused five infections, it’s not clear that these infections were transmitted outdoors or through carpooling. 

Previous suspected cases of outdoor transmission, including a “fleeting encounter” at Bondi Junction Westfield, have been brought into question by the World Health Organization. One study found in Ireland 0.1% of COVID-19 infections could be traced to outdoor transmission. UV light also kills coronaviruses, though the science now shows COVID-19 is transmitted not just through droplets, but airborne aerosols — meaning outdoor transmission is possible.

But an outdoor party or large exercise class poses different risks to sitting in the sunlight in pairs — especially if facemasks are made mandatory outdoors. 

✔ 5km radius

The efficacy of radiuses isn’t known. While limiting mobility is key to reducing spread, it’s near impossible to isolate data around radiuses. As with many COVID-19 measures, efficacy is likely based on a combination of restrictions rather than just one. 

The 5km radius is, as Fuller pointed out, less about limiting transmission and more about helping police patrol areas and keeping crowds away from popular places like Bondi beach. The decision to halve the radius was made just two days after Berejiklian rebuffed suggestions to implement the 5km rule.

 ✖ Registering singles  

So far, there have been no cases of transmission among single buddies. People who live alone can designate one partner to visit. The new rules mean these buddies have to be registered for people in areas of concern, and their single buddies must also live within a 5km radius. 

✔ Ring of steel

With the bolstered ADF presence, roadblocks have been set up to ensure people aren’t travelling illegally. New rules were implemented to restrict people from travelling to and from different residences, with just one person allowed to visit their holiday home for necessary maintenance and repairs. 

The roadblocks will assist with enforcing these rules. Even before Sydney’s lockdown was announced, businesses had been calling for this ring of steel to be implemented, and it’s not clear — costs aside — why this didn’t happen sooner. 

✔ Early lockdowns are key

NSW’s lockdown was started by a limo driver transporting airline workers who caught COVID-19 and transmitted it across the eastern suburbs. The virus soon spread across the state with limited restrictions on people leaving Greater Sydney, but no lockdown. Gladys Berejiklian’s decision to leave the state open was supported by Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

“My fellow Sydneysiders can feel very confident that if anyone can get on top of this without shutting the city down it is the NSW government,” he said. 

Lockdown was implemented the very next day after Morrison’s remarks on June 16 with stay-at-home orders for everyone in Greater Sydney, the Blue Mountains, Central Coast, Shellharbour and Wollongong. Berejiklian said on June 24 she was “comfortable that the settings that are in place are the appropriate settings” as no new restrictions were announced.

By June 30, the cluster had become Sydney’s largest outbreak to date with 160 total cases.

Short, sharp lockdowns have time and time again shown to be key in limiting transmission. While there’s nothing that can be done about that now, there’s little evidence to show these extra restrictions will do much. Instead, the focus needs to be placed on rule-breakers through the ring of steel, making essential workplaces safer, and ensuring everyone understands the rules, with better supports in place for those missing out on work.