Annastacia Palaszczuk and Scott Morrison (Images: AAP)

So what next? As tens of thousands of people — many of them returning Queenslanders — cross the border into the sunshine state for the first time in five months, that’s the question that needs a policy focus.

The political messaging too will be a key battlefield, as Prime Minister Scott Morrison tries to sandbag the swag of seats he won last time. Losing just a few will see him sent to the opposition benches. It’s a high stakes Christmas game that could impact on either of the popularity of Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk or Morrison’s electoral fortunes.

Queensland has largely been a COVID-free zone. A couple of quick lockdowns put out spotfire transmissions, but unlike New South Wales and Victoria, hospital admissions and deaths have been rare. Voters have obliged with mask-wearing and social distancing, and businesses have paid a heavy price, considering the small amount of transmission.

Palaszczuk has taken the credit for the COVID-free living — and might even deserve it, although she’s been helped by voters’ acquiescence.

While those stuck outside the state — some shut out of their own houses and others homeless after being forced to forgo their rental accommodation — have been furious, those inside the border have largely felt “safe”. That was the premier’s promise: trust her, vote for her, and she’ll keep you safe. 

In practical terms, it was a one-trick policy. Close the gates. Shut the borders. Value parochialism. Yesterday that was upended when borders opened and cars queued for kilometres. And the risk of COVID joining that queue will only grow as the days and weeks pass.

If COVID spreads and tallies rise even to half of what we’ve seen in other states, Labor’s promise of “keeping you safe” will be seen as nothing more than a political ploy. And that’s particularly in parts of the state outside the south-east, where many see this pandemic as a big-city disease. Fewer than 50% of residents in some regional areas — mainly Indigenous communities — have been vaccinated.

This pandemic has been treated as a political rather than a health issue from day dot, and rising COVID cases will give the Liberals ammunition to take on Labor in a state where Morrison’s biggest threat is Palaszczuk’s popularity.

And what makes Palaszczuk vulnerable is that absence of any COVID policy depth. How will COVID be dealt with in schools from February? Will the thousands of public school teachers refusing the mandate to be vaccinated really lose their jobs? What is the broader lockdown policy? When will voters be taken into the government’s confidence? When will 17-year-olds, headed for university, be allowed a booster shot? How is the awful loneliness being felt in aged care facilities going to be addressed? 

Those questions are the tip of the policy iceberg, and need to be considered. But so does something that might prove bigger — and sadder. From Friday, unvaccinated locals will be barred from cafes and clubs, packed stadiums, festivals and various entertainment venues.

That’s sensible to keep a check on pandemic numbers. But voters won’t ignore the fact that Queenslanders are moving to further restrictions just as other states move towards greater freedoms. They see it as punishment for the doing the right thing.

Police will have to arbitrate, and that could create chaos. A patron refuses to show vaccination proof, police are called, and what happens then? How many police will be required? And should this be their focus?

Already a community divide is developing. On one side are the proudly vaccinated who will be spotted in the state’s best coffee haunts on Friday morning. On the other side, staying at home, will be the unvaccinated — and many who are angered that a vaccine will determine their daily lifestyle activities in a state that has remained, until now, almost COVID-free.

The role of the states has trumped the Commonwealth in navigating COVID challenges and Labor will be hoping its new open borders and antivax-free zones will provide the platform Anthony Albanese needs to win the Lodge. Morrison, on the other hand, will be looking to use climbing COVID tallies as proof that Queensland’s policy has amounted to nothing more than an order to batten the hatches.