Pro-Ukraine protesters in Munich (Image: Sipa USA/Alexander Pohl)

This weekend Russia’s invasion will grind over into its sixth month. Yet while the shooting part is (so far) confined to Ukraine, the war is doing considerable damage to Europe’s political and economic structures — and its commitment to standing up to Vladimir Putin.

The European Union member states are in a race to ramp down their energy dependency on Russian gas in as orderly a way as possible before Putin’s weaponisation of supply shatters support for Ukraine.

A quarter of Europe’s energy comes from gas, and 40% of that gas comes from Russia (more for countries in central Europe and Germany). About a quarter of Europe’s crude oil also comes from Russia.

“Russia is blackmailing us. Russia is using energy as a weapon,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday in announcing an “ask” to the 27 members to cut use of gas by at least 15% between August and the end of winter next March. Initially voluntary, the commission can make it mandatory if required.

While right now the global climate crisis is playing out in Europe with record heat, winter is coming. And it’s then that Europe’s leaders expect Russia to cut off gas supplies altogether (the “likely scenario” says von der Leyen), literally freezing Europe out of its support for Ukraine.

Russia has already throttled back supply due to “maintenance”, forcing Germany and Canada to waive replacement parts through sanctions (to the anger of Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy). This throttling is preventing EU states from building up reserves for winter. 

Russia is maneuvering for a repeat of the Minsk accords in 2014 and 2015 when Western European powers brokered a “temporary” ceasefire across the Donbas in eastern Ukraine which protected Europe’s continuing “business as usual” supply of gas.

Now, a renewed ceasefire along the current front line would deliver Russia the remainder of the Donbas and a land corridor connecting Crimea (and protecting the peninsula’s supply of water).

The Russian pressure is already fracturing European politics, with the collapse of the pro-Europe ruling coalition in Bulgaria after Russia cut off gas supplies. In Italy, the surprisingly durable Draghi government has been forced to a confidence vote after a split over Russia in one of the major governing parties. 

The energy crisis has prompted the Macron government in France to buy out the country’s major energy company, EDF, to ensure it can guarantee the continued viability of its nuclear energy program.

Within Ukraine, there’s a fear that Europe threatens to go all Scott Morrison on them — all announcement, limited delivery. Worse, it seems even the announcements are starting to dry up,

Chief target of the finger-pointing is Germany which, for all its talk of a time-turning zietenwende, has managed to both underpromise and then underdeliver on those promises.

According to the Ukraine aid tracker of one of the continent’s oldest think tanks, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, by July 1 Germany had delivered only €290 million in direct in-kind military equipment of its already laggard promise of €620 million. (It’s pledged a further €900 in financial aid to buy weaponry, largely from German suppliers, although it’s limiting sales of offensive weapons.)

By comparison with Germany, the major EU-member contributor has been Poland which has delivered the full €1.8 billion it has committed. The continent’s major military power, France, says it’s keeping most of its contribution confidential.

The other top-five military backers are non-EU members of NATO: Norway, Canada, the UK and the United States. 

The US dwarfs all other countries, having supplied €2.44 billion, with another €4 billion promised. Most significantly, it has recently supplied a dozen state-of-the-art high-mobility multiple rocket launchers which are credited with equalising the two sides as the front line digs into artillery duels.

Ukraine fears Europe (particularly the “old Europe” of France and Germany) won’t be able to resist the temptation to cut a deal if the two sides dig in with a military stalemate. Conscious that time may not be on its side, Ukraine is talking up a series of “any day now” military offensives, particularly around Kherson which bridges the Dnipro river in southern Ukraine.